Is the time for nuclear fusion now? A conversation with David Welch and TAE CEO Michl Binderbauer.
Summary of Questions Covered
To see a summary of the questions covered and main points, scroll down this page. To see the different questions answered in the video, click the chapters button on the bottom right-hand side of the video player.
(00:00) David Welch Introduction
Dave introduces 4-Good and discusses the recent CE10 conference.
Introducing 4-Good
4-Good is a community of people that are committed to discussions on how to create solutions around major problems create.
We've identified six critical problem areas to focus on.
Today’s focus: The conversion of our energy infrastructure and its impact on the environment.
CE10 Summary
CE10 was a conference held in June 2022 sponsored by 4-Good, Caltech and Stanford
The conference aggregated many players, from the political to the industrial players, in the energy conversion sector.
Three big ideas from CE10:
There is a major problem we are not addressing with the urgency required
Unless we dramatically change our course of action, we will not meet our 2030 fifty-percent reduction of greenhouse gas emission goals.
Our solution must allow economies to continue to grow and energy sources to continue to drive the cost structure down of energy. This will make it more pervasive so we can enable human society to continue on its trajectory but do it in a fashion that protects the world and allows us to reduce our greenhouse glasses without sending the economy and environment into a downward spiral.
“We are excited to have a conversation about probably what could be one of the greatest technological advances being pursued to affect society and humankind.”
(3:57) Michl Binderbauer Introduction
Dave introduces Michl Binderbauer. Michl discusses his journey from PhD student to Fusion CEO and a brief history of the fusion field.
Norman Rosser, Michl’s mentor, was one of the early founders in the field of plasma physics and fusion research.
Norman had a different approach to fusion, which resonated with Michl.
“I can summarize the journey so far as like climbing a mountain. You are at the base camp, you know, in the fog of the inversion layer, you get to the point where the fog clears and you realize, my God, I’m not even a quarter up. The summit is way up there, but at least you see it.”
(10:41) The Near Future of Fusion
Michl covers the near future of fusion, especially as the world turns towards electrification.
(13:20) What is the reason to believe that the technology is ready?
What are the technical steps that need to happen transition from Norman to Copernicus?
What Norman has Achieved Today
Norman runs today at about 75 million degrees
The number to hit for a continuous fuel cycle is 150 million degrees, so TAO is within a factor of two or less
Fusion requires both lower density and higher temperatures than energy in the solar system, like the sun
Norman can actually get into the state of hundreds of millions of degrees and the leak rates are gonna be small enough based on the current calibration of data that we will get to a state where we can get more energy out than we have to put in.
“Fusion is the process of trying to tame the beast inside and hold it off.”
(21:24) How do AI and machine learning play a role?
Michl explains how the heart of fusion science is understanding and maintaining control and how TAE’S machine learning has developed. Machine learning gave TAE a methodical way to double the machine’s performance over time.
(26:12) Is the time for fusion now?
Michl explains why the time for fusion is now due to the confluence of multiple remarkable things.
Why the time is now: The tools are matching up with the challenge.
Scientific understanding on the macro and micro scale of what it takes to contain plasma.
Deep computation of lots of data and scientific collaboration.
Big strides in vacuum technology
Five years ago, the digital algorithms we not fast enough and the software was not robust enough to support this technology.
“I say this as a scientist, who is mindful of audacious statements in the next 10 years, somebody’s gonna crack [fusion].”
(34:36) Can fusion happen fast enough?
Michl discusses the different barriers to reaching short-term fusion goals.
As the world switches to electrification, we need to plan for the future of our energy sources and plan for fusion now.
How could adoption risk happen?
We will never be a society of one energy source.
Portfolio solution: We need several high-quality, low-cost, and carbon-free technologies.
(38:15) What are fusion’s adoption hurdles?
Michl talks about different adoption hurdles, especially helping people understand what fusion is, how it is safe and what needs to happen on a policy level.
It is essential to help people understand what fusion is so they can also understand the technology’s safety.
Does “nuclear fusion” need a rebrand? Perhaps we should refer to the technology as “fusion” instead of “nuclear fusion” to avoid misconceptions around public safety.
The future of certification, the NRC and current models different countries have adopted regarding fusion
(49:09) What reactor size is required to make the economics work?
Dave believes we need a portfolio of sources that compete economically. Michl describes the different economic scales that will come with generations of technology.
A 50-megawatt plant, which DaVinci achieved, is the first stepping stone where the scale of economics and technologies make sense.
The next step is to build a 400 to 500-megawatt plant, which would allow market competition.
The current base point for carbon-free nuclear fission is priced at 10 to 15 cents per kilowatt hour.
TAE estimates that the initial cost of the fusion energy plant will be 7 cents per kilowatt hour. With certain economies of scale, that can lower to 5 cents.
60% of the plant’s costs will be in the cost of the magnets and fuel injectors.
A portfolio energy solution will ensure that risks are covered, the energy is consistent and the economics are in check.
(57:22) Conclusion: Solving our energy problem is a humanities problem.
Dave and Michl discuss how we can bring fusion to the world.
“People ask this question on the journalistic side, ‘Do you have competitors?’ I have many companions, collaborators, and co-conspirators who are all trying to do the same thing for humanity. More shots on goal are what we want.”